The Stevens Method

The Stevens Method

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Sheriff Tony Says Crime Is Down 23%. Compared to What?

Five of six Florida sheriffs posted bigger drops. BSO's statement doesn't mention them — or say what it counted.

T. Chaz Stevens's avatar
T. Chaz Stevens
Oct 01, 2026
∙ Paid

TL:DR; FBI agency tables show property-crime count declines between 2019 and 2025 of 58.5% in Hillsborough, 48.9% in Pinellas, 48.2% in Polk, 46.2% in Palm Beach and 32.2% in Miami-Dade. Lee came in at 17.2%. Five of the six Florida sheriffs examined beat the number Tony is advertising.

Sheriff Gregory Tony says crime in BSO’s service areas has fallen since 2019: 23% overall, 18% violent, 24% property. He says the numbers reflect his agency’s work.

Fewer crimes is good news. A claim of credit is a different thing, and it gets examined. A percentage says something changed. It does not say whether the change was exceptional, whether the comparison was honest, or what caused it.

Tony’s statement leaves three questions open.

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